Montgomery County Public Schools could close or consolidate elementary and middle schools in Bethesda under a two-year study that launched in August 2026, driven by enrollment projections showing the district will lose more than 11,300 students over the next decade.

The district expects its student population to fall from 150,746 in the current school year to 139,402 by 2035-36, according to an enrollment update reported by WTOP from the Board of Education's July 16 meeting. The Maryland State Department of Planning projects a smaller decline, to 143,390 students.

The study unfolds in two phases. Phase 1, covering the 2026-27 school year, focuses on which schools to close or consolidate. The board will receive more details at its Oct. 8 meeting, and MCPS will hold public information sessions from late October through January 2027. Superintendent Thomas Taylor is expected to present a closure recommendation in February or March 2027, followed by public hearings in March and April. The board's decision is scheduled for May 2027.

Phase 2, a boundary study beginning in the 2027-28 school year, will redraw attendance lines based on whatever closures or consolidations the board approves. Any changes would take effect in the 2029-30 school year.

The study also considers changes to "paired schools," where K-2 and 3-5 students are split between two buildings, according to Bethesda Magazine. MCPS plans to hire Flo Analytics, the same firm that conducted the recent high school boundary study, to lead the work.

No specific Bethesda-area schools have been named as closure targets. The study covers all MCPS elementary and middle schools districtwide.

Still, two Bethesda schools stand out in recent facility assessments completed this summer: Burning Tree Elementary scored a 0.702 on the district's facility condition index, the third-worst among elementary schools, and Westland Middle scored 0.625, tying for second-worst among middle and high schools. Closure decisions will weigh building conditions, enrollment and capacity, and impacts to educational programs, according to board documents.

Acting chief of district operations Andrea Swiatocha told NBC Washington on Aug. 21 that the district is "embarking on a pretty intense closure and consolidation study … to really help us right size our portfolio." At the July 16 board meeting, she said the district also needs "the opportunity to rebalance" because some schools still rely on portable classrooms due to overcrowding.

Countywide, the Montgomery County Planning Board projects more than 13,300 surplus elementary seats (17% of capacity) and over 7,100 surplus middle school seats (18% of capacity) by the 2031-32 school year.

Board member Karla Silvestre acknowledged the anxiety the process may cause. "I think there's gonna be like, 'Oh my gosh, my school's closing, this is terrible,'" she said at the July 16 meeting.

The board's next update is scheduled for Oct. 8, with public sessions running through January 2027.