Parts of Montgomery County could see above-average snowfall this winter, according to a European weather model that projects 19 strong East Coast storms, more than double the usual nine.
Washington Post meteorologist Ben Noll shared the projections from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF), as first reported by MocoShow on Thursday, Nov. 12.
A snowfall outlook Noll posted on X shows weather models agreeing on above-average snowfall potential across several regions, including the interior Mid-Atlantic. Approximately half of Montgomery County falls within that zone, along with Frederick County, Washington County and much of Northern Virginia.
"That's going to leave a mark, with more frequent risks for coastal and freshwater flooding, strong winds and inland snow," Noll wrote on X.
The forecast is driven by El Niño, which the ECMWF projects will peak in the central Pacific around the new year and persist into June. El Niño influences atmospheric circulation and storm tracks, potentially affecting winter precipitation patterns across the United States.
Noll identified late December, early-to-mid January and mid-to-late February as periods to watch for intense weather systems.
The projections come with caveats. Not every storm will bring snow. Strong East Coast storms can produce rain, snow, mixed precipitation or combinations of all three, depending on temperatures and storm tracks. The forecast does not guarantee significant accumulation in Montgomery County.
County snow operations
Montgomery County's Department of Transportation manages snow response on more than 5,000 lane miles, deploying 200 employees under a five-stage plan, according to the county's winter storm information portal. Residents are required to clear sidewalks within 24 hours after a snowstorm ends.
