Montgomery County Public Schools lost 4,083 students between the 2025-2026 and 2026-2027 school years, but private schools and homeschooling account for only a sliver of that drop.

The net number of students leaving MCPS for private schools or homeschooling grew by fewer than 100 from the 2025-2026 to the 2026-2027 school year, according to data presented at a board work session Monday, Nov. 2, in Rockville. The figures, first reported by Bethesda Magazine, challenge claims made on social media and elsewhere attributing the decline to a large number of students leaving for private or home-based alternatives.

"There are plenty of factors that do account for the decline in enrollment," DJ Connelly, director of the MCPS Department of Planning and Construction, told the board. He said the notion that "all 4,100 students went to private school" is "simply not the case."

The numbers behind the narrative

Enrollment data from September 2025 and September 2026 show the private-school net loss edged up from 329 students to 412. In 2025, 1,756 students entered MCPS from private schools while 2,085 left. In 2026, 1,666 entered while 2,078 left.

Homeschooling followed a similar pattern. The net loss grew from 73 students in 2025 to 82 in 2026. In 2025, 193 students joined MCPS from homeschooling and 266 left. In 2026, 202 joined and 284 left.

Combined, the year-over-year increase in students leaving for private schools and homeschooling totals 92 — a fraction of the 4,083-student overall decline.

What is driving the decline

MCPS staff told the board that the primary causes are declining live births and a drop in international student enrollment. International enrollment can include exchange students, U.S. citizens who previously attended school abroad and international students without the equivalent of a secondary education, according to Bethesda Magazine.

Births in Montgomery County have been falling since 2007, according to an MCPS capital budget presentation delivered to the board Oct. 15. The district projects that downward trend to continue, though the Maryland Department of Planning projects births will stabilize and modestly increase.

Enrollment headed lower

Preliminary enrollment as of Sept. 30 stands at 151,967, about 3,000 fewer than the roughly 155,000 the district had projected. The district's six-year projection puts enrollment at 143,479, a decrease of 12,571 from the 2025-2026 school year. The ten-year projection drops further to 137,825, a decrease of 18,225.

If current trends hold, that ten-year figure would represent a decline of 27,442 students from the district's 2019 enrollment peak.

What comes next

The enrollment slide is already shaping district planning. MCPS is conducting a districtwide closure and consolidation study for elementary and middle schools, with community engagement that began Oct. 19. The Board of Education is scheduled to vote on closures April 15, 2027, according to the capital budget presentation. A boundary study is set to begin in fall 2027, after closure and consolidation decisions are made.